In early December, India issued four notices to pilots warning them of a long-range ballistic missile test over the Indian Ocean. The first notice indicated a danger zone 3,500 kilometers long, the second notice adjusted the area to 1,000 kilometers and rescheduled the test for December 11. The third notice expanded the zone again to 3,550 kilometers and rescheduled the test period for December 17-20, while the fourth moved it to December 22-24.
Nitya Lab, a fellow at the British think tank Chatham House, stated: "This type of pilot notice can indicate the launch of a ballistic missile from a submarine. Therefore, this could be a test of India's K-4 SLBM, a submarine-launched missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads with a range of 3,500 kilometers."
Several Chinese research ships have been spotted in the northern, central, and eastern parts of the Indian Ocean, believed to be equipped with sensors capable of detecting missile launches and supporting operations. Speculation is now mounting that the repeated cancellations may be a response to the growing presence of Chinese vessels, raising the specter of a confrontation between India and China. While friction between India and China in the Indian Ocean is not new, India's conducting of advanced strategic missile tests amid expanding Chinese naval presence clearly represents an escalation in the interactions between the two nuclear powers in the region.
The pressing question now is how to interpret these developments and what they mean for regional and global security. There is a legitimate concern that China is becoming more assertive as it expands its security footprint across the Indian Ocean. However, policymakers' focus on competition with China overlooks the growing risks of nuclear escalation in the wider Indian Ocean region by multiple actors. These developments heighten the risk of miscalculation, misunderstanding, and unintended escalation.
China is now an undeniable player in the Indian Ocean. By 2020, it had become the region's largest trading partner and regularly conducts naval exercises and deployments.
